Iran wants a ‘perfect storm’ to threaten Israel with proxies
Iran’s goal of escalation amid the Rafah offensive has therefore not come to the fruition that Iran wanted.
Iran has sought to increase the use of terrorist proxies to attack Israel, particularly in the wake of the Rafah offensive. So far, these attempts have not been very successful, though several drones were launched by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, as Iran continues to use the Houthis in Yemen to attack ships.
The Iraqi militias attacks generally involve the launch of singular drones and although the drones could do damage if they impacted something, they usually fail to get to Israel or are intercepted.
At the same time, the Houthis continue to face off against US naval forces in the Red Sea. According to US Central Command (USCENTCOM), on Monday, “Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists launched three uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) over the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen. A coalition ship successfully engaged one UAS, USCENTCOM forces engaged the second UAS, and the final UAS crashed in the Gulf of Aden. There were no injuries or damages reported by US, coalition, or merchant vessels.” Then, on Tuesday, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile into the Gulf of Aden.
Threats from multiple fronts
Pro-Iranian media suggested that if Israel entered Rafah, it would create a “perfect storm” for Israel to face heavy threats on multiple fronts. So far though, these threats have not materialized the way Iran envisioned. For instance, Hezbollah did increase attacks between Sunday and Wednesday, launching dozens of rockets, and setting off alarms in the Galilee around mid-morning. A half-hour later, sirens sounded near Shlomi and Nahariya.
An Israeli air defense system intercept rockets fired from Lebanon as it seen from the Israeli side of the border, on November 7, 2023. (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)These are all areas Hezbollah targets often, meaning it is thus far using the same playbook. The major deviation was a series of drone attacks by Hezbollah on Monday and Tuesday, killing two IDF soldiers on Monday.
This is a serious escalation. However, Hezbollah appeared to climb down from a more intense escalation on Wednesday. The terrorist group appears to prefer the kind of proportional attacks that it has carried out for seven months now, destroying communities in the North, but not yet crossing the line into a wider war. Iran’s goal of escalation amid the limited Rafah offensive has therefore not come to the fruition Iran wanted. It remains to be seen if Iran and its proxies will change their tune over the weekend.
7 hours ago
CNN got a look at Iran’s drones and missiles, what did it show?
The IRGC now claims its missiles are accurate to within 5 meters, which would be an extraordinary achievement if it were true.
Iranians boasted to CNN about their missile and drone program recently, providing a tour of an exhibit that shows off Iran’s capabilities. The goal for Tehran is to showcase the weapons it used against Israel in the April 13-14 attack.
This is also a way for Iran to show it has the ability to launch missile and drone attacks on other countries, with virtual impunity. Iran, now in the fifth decade of its regime, believes it is at a turning point and on the verge of becoming a premier military-technology power in the region.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brigadier General Ali Belali hosted the tour. “Two weeks after the Middle East came to the brink of an all-out war, with Iran firing hundreds of projectiles toward Israel in retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike on an Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, Tehran is keen to show the world that it is capable of fighting a wider conflict should it be faced with one,” CNN noted.
According to the report CNN got “rare” access to the exhibit. “American media had never been allowed inside until now,” the report said. The site is in western Tehran and has “dozens of long- and medium-range ballistic missiles” alongside drones and cruise missiles. “Today, our drones and missiles have become an important factor of strength and the execution of power in the world,” Belali said. The IRGC now claims its missiles are accurate to within five meters, which would be an extraordinary achievement if it were true.
The Iranian display also showed off its drone program. “While the Iranians acknowledge using dozens of Shahed 136 drones to target Israel, both the US and Ukraine also accuse Tehran of giving hundreds to Russia, with Moscow using them to hit Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure,” the report noted.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits the military equipment of IRGC Navy in Bandar Abbas, Iran, February 2, 2024. (credit: IRAN'S PRESIDENCY/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY)/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)Of interest here is a comment by the Iranian officer where he says “everything is preprogrammed. The flight route is chosen according (to) the enemy’s capabilities and blind spots of radars and all the elements that can help us reach the target.”
This is an important comment because it indicates that Iran’s drones don’t have a “man in the loop” and can’t be called off once launched. This was already widely assumed, but it’s important because it means that the slow drones, which can take hours to reach a target, have to be shot down.
This is an important comment because it indicates that Iran’s drones don’t have a “man in the loop” and can’t be called off once launched. This was already widely assumed, but it’s important because it means that the slow drones, which can take hours to reach a target, have to be shot down.
The degree to which jamming their communications or GPS will work is not clear because if they are preprogrammed on a flight path the path may not need to rely on outside applications or mapping coordinates. This means Iran’s use of more simple technology may actually benefit it in a world that relies on electronic warfare and other means these days to stop drones.
Iran can transport weapons disguised as civilian goods
The article also showcased a truck used to launch drones. The drones are lined up in the back of the truck in such a way that they can be transported in the guise of being a normal commercial truckload of fruit or bricks or anything that might be put on a truck, but when launched the truck’s metal frame is adjusted to a 45° angle so that the drones launch easily. This demonstrates the overall method of the Iranian regime which can smuggle weapons under wraps on civilian trucks, making them hard to find.
Iran also told CNN it used the Ghadr, Emad and Kheybar missiles in its attack. “The missiles have a range of more than 1,000 miles (1,600km.) and can carry warheads between 450 and 500 kg.” the IRGC officer told CNN. The Kheybar missile also has a 320 kg. warhead, the report noted. It has used these missiles before in attacks and in training, attempting to showcase its development of precision weapons.
The Iranian attack on Israel was mostly a failure, but it demonstrates the regime’s impressive capabilities and its willingness to terrorize the region.
6 days ago
Turkey's Erdogan meets opposition leader for first time in 8 years
Thursday's meeting was the first between Erdogan and a CHP leader since 2016, when he hosted then-chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu at the presidential palace after an attempted military coup.
President Reçep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with the leader of Turkey's main opposition CHP party on Thursday, the first such meeting in nearly eight years, just one month after the CHP outperformed Erdogan's party in local elections.
The March 31 vote marked Erdogan and his AK Party's (AKP) worst defeat in more than 20 years in power. It revitalized the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) under new chief Ozgur Ozel, and strengthened Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's standing as a strong future presidential contender.
Erdogan subsequently vowed to correct any mistakes that had led to his party's defeat, which analysts attributed mainly to voter frustration with economic woes, especially soaring inflation.
Ozel entered the AKP headquarters in Ankara just after 4 p.m. (1300 GMT). The talks were expected to focus on efforts to agree on a new constitution, economic developments and the situation in Gaza, according to state broadcaster TRT Haber.
Analysts viewed the local elections as having dented Erdogan's hopes of pushing through a new constitution, which could potentially extend his rule beyond 2028 when his term ends.
Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu attend a meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, January 5, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/DILARA SENKAYA)
On the agenda: economic problems, foreign policy
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus of the AKP is leading talks on an issue that looks likely to dominate domestic politics this year. While the AKP and its allies have a parliamentary majority, Erdogan would need broader support for a successful referendum on a new constitution.
Thursday's meeting was the first between Erdogan and a CHP leader since 2016, when he hosted then-chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu at the presidential palace after an attempted military coup on July 15 of that year.
The following month, Kilicdaroglu joined a huge rally staged by Erdogan in a further show of political unity - though their relations remained frosty through till Kilicdaroglu's failed presidential bid in last year's national election.
After 13 years with Kilicdaroglu at the CHP helm, Ozel became party leader last November amid a push for change in the secularist party, which had been dogged by in-fighting.
Ozel's agenda for the talks was focused on economic problems, notably state pensions and the medium wage, foreign policy, and coordination between the central government and municipalities, according to party sources.
6 days ago